There has been a secular trend towards reduced incidence of severe traumatic brain injury in the first world, driven by public health interventions such as seatbelt legislation, helmet use, and workplace health and safety regulations. This has paralleled improved outcomes following TBI delivered in a large part by the widespread establishment of specialised neurointensive care 1).
Mortality or severe disability affects the majority of patients after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Adherence to the brain trauma foundation severe traumatic brain injury guidelines has overall improved outcomes; however, traditional as well as novel interventions towards intracranial hypertension and secondary brain injury have come under scrutiny after series of negative randomized controlled trials. In fact, it would not be unfair to say there has been no single major breakthrough in the management of severe TBI in the last two decades. One plausible hypothesis for the aforementioned failures is that by the time treatment is initiated for neuroprotection, or physiologic optimization, irreversible brain injury has already set in. Lazaridis et al., and others, have developed predictive models based on machine learning from continuous time series of intracranial pressure and partial pressure of brain tissue oxygen. These models provide accurate predictions of physiologic crises events in a timely fashion, offering the opportunity for an earlier application of targeted interventions. In a article, Lazaridis et al., review the rationale for prediction, discuss available predictive models with examples, and offer suggestions for their future prospective testing in conjunction with preventive clinical algorithms 2).
Determining the prognostic significance of clinical factors for patients with severe head injury can lead to an improved understanding of the pathophysiology of head injury and to improvement in therapy. A technique known as the sequential Bayes method has been used previously for the purpose of prognosis. The application of this method assumes that prognostic factors are statistically independent. It is now known that they are not. Violation of the assumption of independence may produce errors in determining prognosis. As an alternative technique for predicting the outcome of patients with severe head injury, a logistic regression model is proposed. A preliminary evaluation of the method using data from 115 patients with head injury shows the feasibility of using early data to predict outcome accurately and of being able to rank input variables in order of their prognostc significance. 3).
A prospective and consecutive series of 225 patients with severe head injuries who were managed in a uniform way was analyzed to relate outcome to several clinical variables. Good recovery or moderate disability were achieved by 56% of the patients, 10% remained severely disabled or vegetative, and 34% died. Factors important in predicting a poor outcome included the presence of intracranial hematoma, increasing age, motor impairment, impaired or absent eye movements or pupillary light reflexes, early hypotension, hypoxemia or hypercarbia, and raised intracranial pressure over 20 mm Hg despite artificial ventilation. Most of these predictive factors were assessed on admission, but a subset of 158 patients was identified in whom coma was present on admission and was known to have persisted at least until the following day. Although the mortality in this subset (40%) was higher than in the total series, it was lower than in several comparable reported series of patients with severe head injury. Predictive correlations were equally strong in the entire series and in the subset of 158 patients with coma. A plea is made for inclusion in the definition of “severe head injury” of all patients who do not obey commands or utter recognizable words on admission to the hospital after early resuscitation 4).
Survival rate of isolated severe TBI patients who required an emergent neurosurgical intervention could be time dependent. These patients might benefit from expedited process (computed tomographic scan, neurosurgical consultation, etc.) to shorten the time to surgical intervention 5).
The impact of a moderate to severe brain injury can include:
Cognitive deficits including difficulties with:
Attention Concentration Distractibility Memory Speed of Processing Confusion Perseveration Impulsiveness Language Processing “Executive functions” Speech and Language
not understanding the spoken word (receptive aphasia) difficulty speaking and being understood (expressive aphasia) slurred speech speaking very fast or very slow problems reading problems writing Sensory
difficulties with interpretation of touch, temperature, movement, limb position and fine discrimination Perceptual
the integration or patterning of sensory impressions into psychologically meaningful data Vision
partial or total loss of vision weakness of eye muscles and double vision (diplopia) blurred vision problems judging distance involuntary eye movements (nystagmus) intolerance of light (photophobia) Hearing
decrease or loss of hearing ringing in the ears (tinnitus) increased sensitivity to sounds Smell
loss or diminished sense of smell (anosmia) Taste
loss or diminished sense of taste Seizures
the convulsions associated with epilepsy that can be several types and can involve disruption in consciousness, sensory perception, or motor movements Physical Changes
Physical paralysis/spasticity Chronic pain Control of bowel and bladder Sleep disorders Loss of stamina Appetite changes Regulation of body temperature Menstrual difficulties Social-Emotional
Dependent behaviors Emotional ability Lack of motivation Irritability Aggression Depression Disinhibition Denial/lack of awareness
Both single predictors from early clinical examination and multiple hospitalization variables/parameters can be used to determine the long-term prognosis of TBI. Predictive models like the IMPACT or CRASH prognosis calculator (based on large sample sizes) can predict mortality and unfavorable outcomes. Moreover, imaging techniques like MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) can also predict consciousness recovery and mental recovery in severe TBI, while biomarkers associated with stress correlate with, and hence can be used to predict, severity and mortality. All predictors have limitations in clinical application. Further studies comparing different predictors and models are required to resolve limitations of current predictors 6).